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Stockdale Paradox

What the Stockdale Paradox Tells Us About Crisis Leadership

https://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/what-the-stockdale-paradox-tells-us-about-crisis-leadership

“I lived on a day-to-day basis. … [M]ost guys thought it was really better for everybody to be an optimist. I wasn’t naturally that way; I knew too much about the politics of Asia when I got shot down. I think there was a lot of damage done by optimists; other writers from other wars share that opinion. The problem is, some people believe what professional optimists are passing out and come unglued when their predictions don’t work out.”

The Stockdale Paradox—have faith, but confront reality—can be seen in slightly different forms in many cultures.

Stockdale himself was a follower of the ancient Greek Stoic philosophers, who were noted for their concern with understanding reality correctly and shaping one’s response to it optimally. The maxim of Epictetus, “What, then, is to be done? To make the best of what is in our power, and take the rest as it naturally happens,” has similarities to both Buddhist doctrine and the Alcoholics Anonymous Serenity Prayer. (“God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can, and wisdom to know the difference”). Therapy techniques such as radical acceptance similarly emphasize the point of letting go of desires and beliefs about what should be and seeing reality as it is.

In the words of Marsha Linehan, the founder of radical acceptance: “Radical acceptance doesn’t mean you don’t try to change things … You can’t change anything if you don’t accept it, because if you don’t accept it, you’ll try to change something else that you think is reality.”

Research by Leach and others indicates that people who survive disasters are able to regain cognitive function quickly after the event, assess their new environment accurately, and take goal-directed action to survive within it. This is the balance that the Stockdale Paradox facilitates: the realism to let go of intrinsic survival mechanisms and the deep-seated faith to learn the new ones.

the pattern of human response to disasters has been shown to be remarkably consistent across cultures, and for disasters of many different causes, effects, and durations, from earthquakes to shipwrecks to kidnapping.

Advice and exercises for leaders

Begin meetings by having each person introduce themselves by their name, job title, mission, and their immediate tasks

This provides practical information to rescuers, but also has the effect of bringing people back to themselves and helping them begin to focus again.

Angela Duckworth’s concept of grit may be useful here. By grit, Duckworth does not mean endurance for its own sake, but rather commitment to a high-level goal, purpose, or mission—and the ability to assess and revise lower-level goals and tactics as necessary.

One question should be regularly asked at meetings: “What is something that doesn’t fit in, that doesn’t make sense?” 

Normalize admitting these mistakes and analyzing them. Discuss weak spots, harm reduction, and damage control—people will sometimes fall when traveling uncertain terrain, so how can they fall without injuring themselves?

Create ways for your team to surface both their deep faith and their real fears. 

In mental contrasting, a person:

  • Visualizes a goal and its rewards, and then
  • Visualizes what obstacles—including their own behavior—stand between them and their goal. (It is important to do it in this order.)

In their paper on the Stockdale Paradox, authors C. W. Von Bergen and Martin S. Bressler point to previous studies that show when people focus on only positive thoughts about the future, “they literally trick their minds into thinking they have already succeeded and, so, do not need actual efforts to attain something perceived as already acquired.

stock photos

LITA listerv has an useful discussion on stock photos:

eturner@gcls.org:

free stock images under Creative Commons licenses we like to use:

https://www.pexels.com/
https://stocksnap.io/
https://unsplash.com/

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Junior Tidal <jtidal@CityTech.Cuny.Edu>

NYPL also has a public domain collection – http://www.nypl.org/research/collections/digital-collections/public-domain

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John Blyberg <john@blyberg.net>
https://github.com/heyalexej/awesome-images

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Lisa Bunker <Lisa.Bunker@pima.gov>

sample searches to see if they have good images for you.  http://www.thinkstockphotos.com/

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Mark Beatty <mbeatty@ala.org>
https://search.creativecommons.org/

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Corey Seeman <cseeman@umich.edu>

Flickr users have a large number of items that are available under Creative Commons:

https://www.flickr.com/creativecommons/

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For Social Media and Presentations: Free Image Sources

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yvonner@ranchomiragelibrary.org:

Dollar Photo for stock images. They are closing down as of April 15th. Does anyone use another vendor that comparable? We loved that fact that we could prepay for credits ($1 per image) rather than pay for a monthly subscription.

More on free images in this IMS blog:

https://blog.stcloudstate.edu/ims/?s=free+image&submit=Search

Real-World Thinking Skills

5 Ideas for Developing Real-World Thinking Skills

https://www.ascd.org/el/articles/5-ideas-for-developing-real-world-thinking-skills

IDEAS—Inquiry, Design, Evaluation, Argument, and Systems Analysis. Let’s unpack these processes:
  • Inquiry is an investigative process that seeks out understandings and explanations—of observations, outcomes, concepts, and events. The process is driven by thoughtful questions that can be researched and explored in different ways—for example, by analyzing data or documents, generating models, or conducting experiments.
  • Design is an iterative process that results in the development of a new product or process for addressing a need, solving a problem, or improving an existing product/process. It includes clarifying a problem or need, generating possible solutions, testing/evaluating solution options, and developing a plan for implementation.
  • Evaluation involves selecting and applying appropriate criteria for assessing the quality, significance, or merit of something. Evaluation can be used to judge things like products (e.g., the strength of a bridge), outcomes (e.g., the accuracy of a stock market prediction), and processes (e.g., effectiveness of group work).
  • Argumentation is a reasoning process for debating and supporting an idea or position. It involves making a claim and justifying it with reasons and evidence. It can also involve critiquing an argument by challenging its claim or the reasons or evidence given to support it.
  • Systems Analysis is a process for understanding a system’s elements and how they interact. It includes analyzing the various elements in a system and predicting how changes to any part(s) of the system can have both short- and long-term consequences.

Coursera and the higher education

Coursera and the uncertain future of higher education

Coursera is blurring the lines between itself and institutions. The implications for the future of college education are profound.

https://fortune-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/fortune.com/2021/10/25/coursera-uncertain-future-of-higher-education/amp/

The future of higher education is being led by a publicly traded company in California that is growing like gangbusters. Its online platform has a portfolio of thousands of courses from the world’s leading universities, corporations, and nonprofits.

Coursera, which since the spring has been listed on the New York Stock Exchange, is valued at 7 billion dollars and seems to be making all the right moves.

While college and university enrollments have been declining during the pandemic, Coursera’s enrollment rose from 53 million to 78 million students this spring—an increase greater than total U.S. higher education enrollment.

Coursera is only the tip of the iceberg of an explosion of non-collegiate higher education providers. They range from libraries and museums to media companies and software makers, not to mention a burgeoning number of online providers just like Coursera. Microsoft and Google are both offering more than 75 certificate programs.

As our society becomes more fragmented and divided, we have reason to worry that higher education’s transformation will further fragment us. 

Equally important, we need to reintroduce a common curriculum to strengthen social bonds. General education should focus on the shared human experience—linking our past with our present and future, our heritage with the realities that will confront us today and tomorrow.

In the new Coursera world that will be increasingly corporatized, we need to ensure that we don’t lose our core values, our ethics, and our ability to tell fact from fiction.

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more on Coursera in this blog
https://blog.stcloudstate.edu/ims?s=coursera

Augmented Reality ‘Store of the Future’

Augmented Reality Helping Build ‘Store of the Future’

https://www.pymnts.com/news/retail/2021/augmented-reality-helping-build-store-of-the-future/

AR can also be utilized in-store, Ripert said, to show different variations of products without having to carry multiple models and take up precious stockroom space or to make shopping more interactive with scavenger hunts and virtual experiences.

The rise of the metaverse, or immersive virtual worlds where people gather, work and socialize, also makes it crucial for retailers to adopt AR technology now so as to avoid getting left behind.

 

data driven education

The Downside of Data-Driven Education

A dozen years ago, Richard Rothstein wrote an excellent paper called “Holding Accountability to Account,” showing how incentives can perversely affect and undermine the goal that are sought (it is free on the internet).

In 1990k Andrea A. Gabor wrote a book about W. Edwards Deming called The Man Who Discovered Quality, in which she explained Deming’s contempt for merit pay and bonuses, which cause employees to think about themselves and not about the organization and its larger purposes.

Muller wrote a recent article about “metric fixation” in which he reviewed the flaws of data-driven work

“When reward is tied to measured performance, metric fixation invites just this sort of gaming. But metric fixation also leads to a variety of more subtle unintended negative consequences. These include goal displacement, which comes in many varieties: when performance is judged by a few measures, and the stakes are high (keeping one’s job, getting a pay rise or raising the stock price at the time that stock options are vested), people focus on satisfying those measures – often at the expense of other, more important organizational goals that are not measured. The best-known example is ‘teaching to the test’, a widespread phenomenon that has distorted primary and secondary education in the United States since the adoption of the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001.”

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more on data driven education in this IMS blog
https://blog.stcloudstate.edu/ims?s=data+driven+education

Chegg and academic integrity

https://www.dailyemerald.com/news/students-cheat-with-online-learning-service-professors-hope-to-identify-users/article_552d56f4-5a31-11eb-98ae-879264ec0299.html

Services like Chegg have become more accessible to students during unproctored exams in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, causing what UO chemistry professor Shannon Boettcher believes is a “huge problem with academic dishonesty across the nation in the light of remote learning and COVID-19.”

he Digital Millennium Copyright Act’s notice and takedown process requires that service providers remove material that a copyright owner identifies on their website through a valid notice of copyright infringement or become subject to potential secondary liability for assisting with copyright infringement, according to Copyright Alliance.

Chegg Inc. has been sued twice in federal court for claims of copyright infringement, denying allegations in both instances.

Apart from its subscription services, Chegg rents and sells textbooks. The publishing company John Wiley & Sons Inc. filed a lawsuit against Chegg on Dec. 18, 2018, in Manhattan U.S. District Court, alleging that Chegg sold counterfeit versions of its textbooks.

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This $12 Billion Company Is Getting Rich Off Students Cheating Their Way Through Covid

https://www.forbes.com/sites/susanadams/2021/01/28/this-12-billion-company-is-getting-rich-off-students-cheating-their-way-through-covid

Chegg is based in Santa Clara, California, but the heart of its operation is in India, where it employs more than 70,000 experts with advanced math, science, technology and engineering degrees. The experts, who work freelance, are online 24/7, supplying step-by-step answers to questions posted by subscribers (sometimes answered in less than 15 minutes).

Chegg CEO Dan Rosensweig has profited handsomely. His holdings in Chegg plus after-tax proceeds from stock sales add up to $300 million. Rosensweig, who declined to speak to Forbes, has said that Chegg Study was “not built” for cheating. He describes it instead as the equivalent of an asynchronous, always-on tutor, ready to help students with detailed answers to problems. In a 2019 interview, he said higher education needs to adjust to the on-demand economy, the way Uber or Amazon have.

Throughout the pandemic, schools have spent millions on remote proctoring, a controversial practice in which colleges pay private companies like Honorlock and Examity to surveil students while they take tests.

Chegg Study was enjoying steady growth and little competition. Its only serious rival, privately held Course Hero, is a much smaller operation, valued at $1.1 billion, that generates most of its answers from students.

My note:

such proliferation would not have been possible, if the middle and upper administration has been more supportive of faculty when misconduct is detected. If the administration turns blind eye due to “enrollment” and “retention” priorities and curbs faculty reports regarding academic dishonesty, the industry naturally fills out the gap between a mere syllabus statement and inability to act upon it.

There is plenty of lipservice regarding “personalized learning,” but the reality is overworked faculty, who do not have the opportunity to spend sufficient time with students, less to educate them about plagiarism, cheating and similar “auxiliary” trends besides the content of the course.

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more on cheating in this IMS blog
https://blog.stcloudstate.edu/ims?s=cheating

Tilt Brush

Excellent work in getting a #WebXR build of Tilt Brush exported from Unity by @msub2official.
Lots of ripping out of SteamVR in order to get it to compile & you can see there some controller bugs from the port, but great progress.
More details over on @webaverse‘s #webxr Discord. https://t.co/e83hXC6FgW

— Kent Bye VoicesOfVR (@kentbye) January 28, 2021

https://www.forbes.com/sites/charliefink/2021/01/29/this-week-in-xr-quest-sales-boost-facebook-google-punts-vr-assets-shutterstock-eats-turbosquid/

Tilt Brush becomes open source. Google’s solution to Tilt Brush’s problems is to give away the source code on GitHub and torch its free 3D asset store Poly, the only asset store compatible with Tilt Brush’s animated brushes.

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more on Tilt Brush in this IMS blog
https://blog.stcloudstate.edu/ims?s=tiltbrush

Apple AAPL

Apple AAPL is expected to launch its first virtual reality (VR) headset in 2022, which will be a forerunner of its much-anticipated augmented reality (AR) glasses

along with VR features like a completely simulated 3-D digital environment, the device might include limited AR functionalities.

Apple’s entry will intensify competition in the VR device market, which includes devices such as Facebook’s FB Oculus Quest 2, Sony’s SNE PlayStation VR, Microsoft’s MSFT Windows Mixed Reality and HTC’s Vive and Vive Pro.

global spending on AR and VR is expected to reach $72.8 billion in 2024 from $12 billion in 2020, reflecting a CAGR of 54%

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more on Apple Glass in this IMS blog
https://blog.stcloudstate.edu/ims?s=apple+glass

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