- Based on your reading of ARQchapter 9, “Are There Rival Causes?” respond to the following prompts:
- What are rival causes and when how should you look for them (what questions should you use to find them)?
Rival causes are plausible alternative explanations that can explain why a certain outcome occurred. Some clues to look for is as follows: leads to, influences, deters, and determines.
- Explain the difference between causation and association/correlation. Which is more difficult to demonstrate and why?
Causation is when action a explicitly causes action b. Association/correlation is simply a relationship between events which one is dependent and the other is independent.
- Identify the conclusion and reason (cause) for the conclusion in the following passage. Name two potential rival causes (other possible causes) for the conclusion other than the one given.
Increased amounts of germs and bacteria on college campuses cause higher rates of illness in college students. College students are less likely to sanitize living areas and common areas on campus, which in turn creates excessive germs on surfaces and in the air leading to more sickness in students.
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- Conclusion: more sickness in college students
- Reason/cause: college students do not sanitize so they have high illnesses
- Rival (other possible) causes: building maintenance, professors
- Evaluation (How strong is the original argument? What’s missing?): The original argument isn’t that strong because it needs stronger evidence with supporting statistics and explain why all other causes don’t influence the conclusion.
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- Based on your reading of ARQchapter 10, “Are Any Statistics Deceptive?”, summarize how the following types of statistics can be deceptive. What are some strategies you can use to determine how reliable each type is?
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- Unknowable and biased statistics- It can be deceptive due to the use of big numbers to support their conclusions. To test reliability, ask how they were determined.
- Confusing averages- It can be deceptive due to stating the type of average and outliers can skew the averages. To test reliability, look at the range and distribution of the results.
- Measurement errors –It can be deceptive due to the ignoring factors which effect measurement. To test reliability, understand the parameters of the measurements.
- Concluding one thing, proving another- It can be deceptive due to proving information close to the topic but not exactly the topic. To test reliability, ask what study would have to be done and does that match the study from the paper.
- Deceiving by omitting information- It can be deceptive due to not reviling the whole story. To test reliability, ask what relevant information is missing.
- Read the following passage. Identify the conclusion, and reasons, and evaluate the evidence (in this case the statistics) used to support the writer’s argument.
The home is becoming a more dangerous place to spend time. The number of home-related injuries is on the rise. In 2005, approximately 2300 children aged 14 and under died from accidents in the home. Also, 4.7 million people are bitten by dogs each year. To make matters worse, even television, a relatively safe household appliance, is becoming dangerous. In fact, 42,000 people are injured by televisions and television stands each year. With so many accidents in the home, perhaps people need to start spending more time outdoors.
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- Conclusion: People need to spend more time outside
- Reasons/causes: injuries associated with a house
- Evaluate the evidence (the statistics): The evidence is poor due to improper use of statistics. There is deceiving by omitting information, and unknoeable and biased statistics.